Research Methodology: How Our Market Numbers Are Produced
The Reseller Brief and our market notes quote figures about toys, candy and marketplaces. This page explains where each figure comes from, how it is dated and verified, when it is retired, and what the numbers cannot tell you — so anyone citing them can check them.
Published
Data sources
Every statistic is attached to a named publisher. The sources currently in use fall into four groups:
- Government and regulators: the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, and SEC EDGAR filings (Forms 8-K and exhibits) for public companies.
- Trade bodies and research firms: the National Confectioners Association, the National Retail Federation, Circana, The Toy Association, Coresight Research.
- Company newsrooms and press releases: quarterly results and reports published by the companies themselves (for example toy, candy and marketplace operators) and press releases carried on PR Newswire or GlobeNewswire.
- Public tools: Google Trends (United States), queried with a stated time window and term list so the pull can be repeated.
A minority of entries are proprietary estimates from a paid third-party data API. They are labeled as such, carry no source URL, and are retired when a public figure covers the same question.
Verification classes
Public primary source
A press release, filing, agency notice or research post from the originating organization corroborates the figure. The entry carries the source URL and a note on where in the source the figure appears.
Reproducible
Any reader can reproduce the figure from a public tool or a secondary publication of a named study. The entry carries the URL and the exact method (window, terms, comparison).
Proprietary
A paid or internal pull that cannot be independently verified. Labeled transparently as an estimate; no source URL; used sparingly and retired first.
Time periods and dating
- Each figure carries an as-of date: the period end or publication date of the source, not the day we entered it.
- Company results are labeled by fiscal quarter and quarter-end date as the filing states them.
- Google Trends entries state the geography (United States), window (past 90 days), the comparison (latest week versus the mean of the prior four weeks; "% of peak" = latest week versus the 90-day high) and the run date. Trends measures search interest, not sales.
- The weekly Brief compares every active statistic's age with a configured maximum and alerts the editor when the pool is stale or a category has no verified entry.
Marketplaces and categories covered
Statistics are grouped as candy, squishy, toys and marketplace. Marketplace entries currently draw on Amazon, Walmart and eBay company filings and releases, on Circana's social-commerce tracking as reported by a named outlet, and on a Coresight Research live-shopping projection as reported in a press release. TikTok Shop and Whatnot figures appear only when a named source publishes them.
Definitions of metrics
| Term | How we use it |
|---|---|
| Net sales / revenue | As reported by the company in its filing or release, in the currency and period stated. |
| GMV | Gross merchandise volume as defined by the reporting company (for example eBay's GMV), or a labeled third-party estimate. |
| Market size | The dollar figure published by the trade body or research firm, with its stated scope (for example U.S. confectionery, all outlets). |
| Share | A percentage as published by the source; we do not recompute shares from separate figures. |
| Search interest | Google Trends index values compared within one query and window; never converted to sales. |
| Units / sellers / doors | Counts exactly as the source states them, with the source's own scope (brand, category, period). |
Data cleaning and editorial rules
- A figure is entered only with its publisher, as-of date and a note locating it in the source. Sub-claims that cannot be found in the source are dropped, not paraphrased.
- Where a secondary outlet reports a research firm's number, the entry names both (for example "CNBC, citing Circana") and is classed as reproducible or primary according to whether the originating publication is linked.
- Headlines are written by us and may round; the detail line keeps the source's precision.
- Entries are retired (kept in the table, marked inactive) rather than deleted, so a past Brief can still be traced.
Currently active statistics and their sources
8 active entries: 7 Public primary source, 1 Reproducible from a public tool.
| Category | Figure | Source | Class | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| candy | NCA: the winter holidays are candy's biggest season, $7.9B in 2025, up 6.7%; seasonal candy e-commerce dollars up 21% | National Confectioners Association (sales data: Circana) | Public primary source | |
| candy | NCA: 89% of shoppers like holiday themed treats; 84% say limited time offerings make them buy before they're gone | National Confectioners Association | Public primary source | |
| marketplace | Prime Big Deal Days: $9.86B in U.S. online sales, up 8.5%; toy sales up 158% vs September levels (Adobe) | Digital Commerce 360, reporting Adobe Analytics data | Public primary source | |
| squishy | TikTok Shop: "squishy toys" searches up 149% in September; collectibles, squishies included, up 230% year over year in October | TikTok (U.S. Newsroom) | Public primary source | |
| squishy | The Toy Insider's 2026 gift guide names the squishy craze among the year's biggest toy trends; nearly half of 400 picks under $25 | The Toy Insider (PR Newswire) | Public primary source | |
| squishy | needoh searches up 13% vs the prior four weeks; "needoh advent calendar" at 5.5x its late summer level (Google Trends US) | Google Trends (United States) | Reproducible from a public tool | |
| toys | NRF: 2026 holiday retail sales forecast to grow 4.2% to $1.013 trillion, outpacing last year's 3.1% gain | National Retail Federation | Public primary source | |
| toys | JAKKS Pacific Q3 2026: net sales up 20% to $254.2M; Toys/Consumer Products up 23%, North America up 28% | JAKKS Pacific, Inc. via SEC EDGAR | Public primary source |
Limitations
- We do not run surveys or point-of-sale panels. Every market figure is someone else's measurement, with that source's scope and error.
- Company filings describe that company, not the market. Growth at one manufacturer or marketplace is not a category rate.
- Search interest is not demand, and estimates from third-party APIs are estimates.
- Figures reported through a secondary outlet inherit that outlet's summarisation; where possible we link the originating publication.
- We do not publish our own sales, customer counts or order volumes as market statistics.
Update frequency and corrections
The Reseller Brief is assembled weekly and the on-site brief rotates statistics daily from the active pool; the pool is reviewed as new primary sources publish (earnings season, trade-body reports, agency notices). To report an error, email MarcF@OkieDokieDistribution.com with the figure and the source; corrections are made by editing or retiring the entry and are visible on this page and in the next Brief.
Open items (not yet published)
The following are documented here as pending rather than stated as fact. They will be filled in when the method can be published in full; until then no figure depends on them.
- TODO (owner): the seller-count definition and sampling behind any third-party TikTok Shop GMV estimate, beyond "as reported by the data provider".
- TODO (owner): a published retention period for retired statistics.
Frequently asked questions
Where do the numbers in the Reseller Brief come from?
From a curated table of market statistics. Each entry records the publisher, the source URL where one exists, the date the figure is as of, a note on where in the source the figure appears, and a verification class. The Brief only renders entries marked active.
What does 'proprietary' mean on a statistic?
A figure we produced from a paid or internal data pull that a reader cannot reproduce from a public source — for example a third-party GMV estimate. It is labeled as an estimate and carries no source URL. Such figures are the minority and are retired when a public figure covers the same question.
How old can a statistic be before you stop using it?
The weekly Brief checks the age of every active statistic against a configured maximum and alerts us when the pool is stale or a category has no verified figure; stale entries are retired rather than re-run. The 'as of' date is printed with each figure so readers can judge for themselves.
Do you publish seller counts, GMV or revenue?
Only when a named source publishes them. Company results come from SEC filings and company newsrooms; market sizes from trade bodies and research firms; platform figures from the platform's own releases or from named research reported by a named outlet. We do not publish our own customer counts or revenue as market statistics.
How do I report an error?
Email MarcF@OkieDokieDistribution.com with the statistic and the source you believe is correct. Corrections are made by editing or retiring the entry; the change appears on this page and in the next Brief.
Related pages
- Reseller Brief
Where these statistics appear
- Seller resources
Interviews with Dr. Tracey Shelley
- Wholesale for marketplace resellers
What we actually sell
- About Okie Dokie Distribution LLC
Who is behind the company
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