Research Methodology: How Our Market Numbers Are Produced

Every statistic is attached to a named publisher. The sources currently in use fall into four groups:

• Government and regulators: the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, and SEC EDGAR filings (Forms 8-K and exhibits) for public companies.
• Trade bodies and research firms: the National Confectioners Association, the National Retail Federation, Circana, The Toy Association, Coresight Research.
• Company newsrooms and press releases: quarterly results and reports published by the companies themselves (for example toy, candy and marketplace operators) and press releases carried on PR Newswire or GlobeNewswire.
• Public tools: Google Trends (United States), queried with a stated time window and term list so the pull can be repeated.

A minority of entries are proprietary estimates from a paid third-party data API. They are labeled as such, carry no source URL, and are retired when a public figure covers the same question.

• Each figure carries an as-of date: the period end or publication date of the source, not the day we entered it.
• Company results are labeled by fiscal quarter and quarter-end date as the filing states them.
• Google Trends entries state the geography (United States), window (past 90 days), the comparison (latest week versus the mean of the prior four weeks; "% of peak" = latest week versus the 90-day high) and the run date. Trends measures search interest, not sales.
• The weekly Brief compares every active statistic's age with a configured maximum and alerts the editor when the pool is stale or a category has no verified entry.

Statistics are grouped as candy, squishy, toys and marketplace. Marketplace entries currently draw on Amazon, Walmart and eBay company filings and releases, on Circana's social-commerce tracking as reported by a named outlet, and on a Coresight Research live-shopping projection as reported in a press release. TikTok Shop and Whatnot figures appear only when a named source publishes them.

• A figure is entered only with its publisher, as-of date and a note locating it in the source. Sub-claims that cannot be found in the source are dropped, not paraphrased.
• Where a secondary outlet reports a research firm's number, the entry names both (for example "CNBC, citing Circana") and is classed as reproducible or primary according to whether the originating publication is linked.
• Headlines are written by us and may round; the detail line keeps the source's precision.
• Entries are retired (kept in the table, marked inactive) rather than deleted, so a past Brief can still be traced.

• We do not run surveys or point-of-sale panels. Every market figure is someone else's measurement, with that source's scope and error.
• Company filings describe that company, not the market. Growth at one manufacturer or marketplace is not a category rate.
• Search interest is not demand, and estimates from third-party APIs are estimates.
• Figures reported through a secondary outlet inherit that outlet's summarisation; where possible we link the originating publication.
• We do not publish our own sales, customer counts or order volumes as market statistics.

The Reseller Brief is assembled weekly and the on-site brief rotates statistics daily from the active pool; the pool is reviewed as new primary sources publish (earnings season, trade-body reports, agency notices). To report an error, email [email protected] with the figure and the source; corrections are made by editing or retiring the entry and are visible on this page and in the next Brief.

The following are documented here as pending rather than stated as fact. They will be filled in when the method can be published in full; until then no figure depends on them.

• TODO (owner): the seller-count definition and sampling behind any third-party TikTok Shop GMV estimate, beyond "as reported by the data provider".
• TODO (owner): a published retention period for retired statistics.